So I've run through my take on Best Picture and hinted at some of my choices for the others.  Here's a bit more detail on the major categories:

Best Director
Should win: Ang Lee
Will win: Lee or Steven Spielberg
As long as they don't win:  David O Russell

Just for his visual adaptation and making Life of Pi seem like a story that belongs in the cinema, Lee gets my vote.  Spielberg keeps his sentimental tendencies under control and has brought together a fantastic film. Michael Haneke has made cinematic something that could be stagey and created a film which is nearly tonally perfect when dealing with an extremely difficult subject. Behn Zeitlin has crafted something poetic and touching and unique.  But I can't really see what was so special in David O Russell's direction of Silver Linings Playbook (apart from that incredible sweep shot during the final dance scene which is everywhere) which merits inclusion over Paul Thomas Anderson or Quentin Tarantino.

Best Actor
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
As long as they don't win: Bradley Cooper
See my other blog post for some of why DDL deserves the award.  I didn't take to Joaquin Phoenix's performance at first, finding it a bit mannered, but I grew into it and the mannerisms proved to be highly effective. A fantastically wild performance that if Day-Lewis wasn't up for it, I'd be championing.  Hugh Jackman gives an effective and enthusiastic performance, and for sheer hard work alone, deserves his nod and he does what he can with the lack of characterisation in the musical.  I haven't seen Flight so can't comment on Denzel Washington.  See my other blog for my opinion on the limitations to BRADLEY COOPER and his box of quirkiness.

Best Actress
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence (or maybe, just maybe Riva)
As long as they don't win: N/A
Riva's performance is heartbreaking.  She doesn't have long to create a convincing character before the first stroke but she does and judges her descent into worse and worse health perfectly.  There is no showiness. just terrible sadness.  COOPER, learn from this!  Jennifer Lawrence is pretty terrific with her part, much more convincing than her co-star, but she is clearly the better actor.  Jessica Chastain is fantastic as usual although Maya's similarities to Carrie Matheson meant I was slightly distracted during the film and it also feels like a part that it is easier to impress in than, say, Riva's in Amour.  Quvenzhane Wallis is superb, unbelievable for a girl of her age - this wasn't just child acting, it was acting, acting. Phenomenal.  I haven't seen The Impossible so can't comment on Naomi Watts.  Still cannot believe that Marion Cotillard wasn't nominated for Rust and Bone. I guess two French actresses wasn't an option.

Best Supporting Actress
Should win: Amy Adams
Will win: Anne Hathaway
As long as they don't win: N/A
I went through my paragraph on Les Miserables without mentioning Anne Hathaway because deservedly she's the first person every mentions. She is terrific, and she gives it everything.  But Amy Adams, has a truly unforgiving part, which she nails and frankly Amy Adams deserves every award she goes for probably for her whole career. There is nothing wrong with Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings, though I was surprised it was nominated as it wasn't particularly impactful.  I'm not sure about Sally Field in Lincoln.  Nothing to do with Field herself, and from all accounts, an accurate one of the emotional Mary Todd Lincoln, but it just didn't quite feel in keeping with the greater emotional control of the rest of the film - although as my mum helpfully pointed out, because of the focus is on such a short period, we only get to see a snapshot of her and a longer period biopic would have led to a very different characterisation and performance.  I haven't seen The Sessions (I will try amend that at some point!) so can't comment on Helen Hunt.

Best Supporting Actor
Should win:  Philip Seymour Hoffman
Will win: Robert de Niro
As long as they don't win: N/A
It's a sign of de Niro's class that he provides a much more a convincing performance of someone with a possible mental health condition than his co-star.  It's a nice performance and I think there will be enough sentimentality to give him the award.  But Hoffman, wow.  His turn as Lancaster Dodd is so frighteningly convincing it probably belongs in a horror movie.  He more than holds his own against Phoenix without overshadowing him, and is utterly riveting.  Alan Arkin is fun without being exceptional in a pretty wide ranging and competent cast. Tommy Lee Jones is very effective and does a great job with his role, but it's not his film.  I would be more than happy to see Christoph Waltz double up on his BAFTA.  He has a particular charisma that few other actors do, and although he is not given quite the opportunity to show off his abilities that he did in Inglourious Basterds, he gives a very memorable turn and it is one of those times you can't really imagine anyone else playing that character.  I would have liked to have seen James Spader (for Lincoln) and Samuel L Jackson (for Django) nominated, but I suspect the former's part was maybe a little too small and the latter's too controversial for them to get picked up.

Best Original Screenplay
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom
Will win: Django Unchained
As long as they don't win: n/a
Look any screenplay by Wes Anderson is likely to be on my should win list. Moonrise Kingdom was funny, charming and moving.  Django is sharp, smart and delivers a great story.  To me Amour is so much about the naturalistic performances, I'm not sure how much I noticed there was a script - though Georges' anecdotes are wonderful and poignant, as are many of the character-setting conversations.  Zero Dark Thirty is so set on being impartial reportage that it is perhaps one of the reasons the film is a little emotionless, but it is still effective at pushing through the story.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should win: Lincoln
Will win: Argo
As long as they don't win: Everything bar Lincoln
I can't say enough good things about Tony Kushner's screenplay.  This could easily have turned Lincoln into the mythic hero President instead of the complex man who doesn't always fit this.  It could have got bogged down into detail or been so sweeping that the near impossible task ahead looks like an inevitability. Argo is the screenplay of an effective thriller, well told, but perhaps could have used a little more context about the politics and the current affairs, after the opening few minutes. Life of Pi is all about the visual achievement though the script is successful in capturing the book in spirit.  I still can't believe that Beasts was based on a play as it feels cinematic and incredibly natural.  Silver Linings Playbook's simplification of bipolar disorder means it should not be on the list, although except for that, there is some nicely written dialogue.

Well let's see tomorrow if I was right on any of those predictions....